Bitcoin is closing in on the $100,000 mark, but signs of pressure are growing. Long-term holders now sit on large unrealized gains. This has often led to big sell-offs in the past. At the same time, technical signals point to risks in the market.

Bitcoin is nearing the $100,000 milestone. This has excited many in the crypto space. But not all signs point to a smooth ride ahead. Long-term holders (LTH) of Bitcoin are now sitting on big profits — nearly 350%. History shows that this level often leads to people selling their coins. This could bring heavy pressure on the price if demand does not keep up.

On-chain data from Glassnode, a well-known blockchain analysis firm, shows that the average long-term holder now holds Bitcoin at an unrealized gain of about 350%. This profit level matches the spot price of $99,900 — very close to the $100K mark.

Why 350% Gains Matter

The 350% profit level is not just a number. It has meaning. In past cycles, this was the point when many long-term investors decided to sell. They saw it as a good time to take profits. If that pattern repeats now, we could see a wave of selling just as Bitcoin hits $100K.

So far, most LTHs have stayed firm. They have not sold. But the signals are shifting. Glassnode’s latest report warns:

“We can anticipate an increase in selling pressure as the market approaches this zone. Strong demand will be needed to keep the price up.”

The report points out three main things:

• Many long-term holders are now close to their historical sell points.

• The $99,900 level marks a key profit line.

• Without enough new buying, a sell-off could follow.

This means the Bitcoin market is entering a critical zone. If enough buyers step in, the price may break above $100K. But if buyers fall short, the selling could bring prices down fast.

Technical Risks Add to the Concern

It’s not just the long-term holders who could cause trouble. Technical indicators show more risk. Some traders see a growing imbalance in the order book.

One such trader is TheKingfisher. He shared his views on X (formerly Twitter) on May 1. He noted a “massive wall of long liquidations” below the $91,000 level. This means many traders are betting on higher prices. If the price drops suddenly, they could be forced to sell, making the drop worse.

He also noted that short positions — bets on the price going down — are very low above $96,600. This leaves the market exposed. If there’s no one betting on a drop, there’s less support if the price falls.

“The risk to long positions is high at these levels,” TheKingfisher said. “The bullish potential seems low for now.”

Other key signals also point to stress. Bitcoin has only just passed two important levels:

• The 111-day simple moving average (SMA)

• The average price paid by short-term holders (STH)

Both of these are seen as signs of strength. But the gains are still fragile. If Bitcoin slips below these lines, traders may see it as a loss of support. This could trigger more selling and hurt confidence.

Will Bitcoin Break $100K or Fall Back?

The next move could be key. If Bitcoin can stay above $100,000, it may mark the start of a new uptrend. That would show strength and strong demand. But if sellers take over and buyers hesitate, the price could pull back sharply.

In past bull runs, this same setup — high profits for LTHs, weak order books, and key technical levels — has led to corrections. Sometimes these dips are short. Other times, they signal the end of a rally. The next few days or weeks will reveal which way things go.

For now, investors should watch these key factors:

• LTH behavior near the 350% profit mark

• Order book imbalances and liquidation risks

• Whether Bitcoin holds support at its moving averages

• New buying interest as BTC nears $100,000

Bitcoin’s rise to $100K may be a key moment in the 2025 crypto cycle. But it could also be a trap for those who ignore the signs of stress.