Ethereum experienced renewed selling pressure on Thursday as 228,000 ETH options contracts, valued at approximately $730 million, expired, according to Greeks.live. The token’s decline marks its third consecutive monthly loss, reflecting a broader market sentiment that has shifted from neutral to negative. This large-scale options expiry coincided with $3.95 billion in Bitcoin options reaching maturity, reinforcing downward pressure on both leading cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin slipped below the psychologically significant $100,000 level, while Ethereum continued its slide, raising concerns among traders about near-term market stability.
Data from Greeks.live highlighted that the maximum pain point for the expiring Ethereum contracts was $3,475, a level where options losses are maximized for holders. At the same time, implied volatility (IV) for Ethereum has surged dramatically, with major expiries exceeding 70% and short-term IV approaching 100%. These figures suggest that market participants are anticipating larger price swings for ETH in the near term, significantly higher than Bitcoin’s relatively moderate 45% near-term IV. The firm noted that put options are gaining dominance as BTC breaks below key support levels, signaling a cautious or bearish stance from derivatives traders.
Despite the bearish tone, some on-chain metrics point to potential resilience in Ethereum. Analyst CryptoOnchain reported a massive single-day outflow of 413,000 ETH from Binance, worth more than $1.4 billion, marking the largest withdrawal since February. Large transfers off centralized exchanges often signal long-term confidence, as they reduce immediate selling pressure. Technically, Ethereum has also reclaimed its 50-week exponential moving average against Bitcoin, a level historically preceding upward price movements. Analysts note that if ETH can maintain support above $3,000, bullish targets near $4,400 remain plausible.
Macro factors, however, continue to add uncertainty. The recent 43-day U.S. government shutdown created a data vacuum, leaving traders to rely on projections for economic indicators. The Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance and the unclear likelihood of rate cuts have contributed to a “wait-for-signal” environment in crypto markets. Doctor Profit, a market strategist, warned that further downside for Bitcoin could extend into the $90,000–$94,000 range, a scenario that would likely weigh on Ethereum as well.
For investors and traders, the expiration of $730 million in Ethereum options underscores the heightened risk environment and the potential for rapid price swings. While on-chain activity and technical setups offer glimmers of confidence, the convergence of macro uncertainty, elevated volatility, and bearish derivatives positioning signals that market participants should remain vigilant. Moving forward, ETH’s trajectory will likely depend on how it navigates both short-term volatility and longer-term macroeconomic pressures, with volatility-driven opportunities offering both risks and potential gains for seasoned and new investors alike.
