Bitcoin’s recent struggle to regain the $100,000 level has stirred uncertainty across the crypto market, but new analysis from Bitwise suggests that the leading digital asset may be primed for a significant rebound. The cryptocurrency fell below the key psychological threshold on November 13 and has remained under pressure, yet researchers argue that the downturn is out of step with the broader macroeconomic trajectory. André Dragosch, head of research at Bitwise Europe, said the last time he observed such a favorable risk-reward environment was during the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic, when Bitcoin plunged from around $8,000 to below $5,000 before embarking on one of its strongest bull runs in history.
Dragosch believes today’s market setup closely mirrors those extreme conditions. He explained that Bitcoin is currently pricing in the most bearish global growth outlook seen since 2022, shaped by aggressive quantitative tightening from the U.S. Federal Reserve and lingering fallout from events such as the collapse of FTX. According to his assessment, Bitcoin is behaving as though a recession is imminent and has already absorbed much of the negative sentiment built up over the past two years. This view contrasts with recent comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who reassured the public that the United States is not at risk of entering a recession in 2026.
The disconnect between market expectations and macro projections comes at a time when Bitcoin has significantly underperformed. After reaching an all-time high of $125,100 on October 5, the asset tumbled following a $19 billion liquidation event on October 10. Sentiment worsened after President Donald Trump announced 100% tariffs on Chinese goods, intensifying risk aversion in global markets. Bitcoin broke below $100,000 on November 13 and briefly slipped under $90,000 on November 20 before bouncing back. Data from CoinMarketCap shows a 17.33% decline over the past month, underscoring the extent of the pullback.
Despite the downturn, real-world adoption continues to expand across various sectors. Cryptocurrencies remain widely used for secure withdrawals in online gaming and crypto casino platforms, demonstrating resilience even during bearish cycles. Even regions with historically strict regulations, such as the UAE, are beginning to embrace digital gambling platforms. The GCGRA’s recent authorization of Play 971 as the first online casino in the UAE highlights how blockchain-based services continue to gain traction regardless of market volatility.
On the macro side, Dragosch maintains that global growth is likely to recover, driven by the lagging effects of prior monetary stimulus. He compared current conditions to the post-COVID environment, where supportive policies helped spur economic expansion well into the following years. He suggested that a similar pattern could unfold into 2026, giving Bitcoin ample room to realign with improving fundamentals and potentially move higher.
Not everyone in the crypto sector believes the recent decline marks the start of a prolonged bear market. Market analyst Alessio Rastani noted that historical patterns show similar setups have preceded strong rallies roughly 75% of the time. Meanwhile, BitMine chair Tom Lee remains confident that Bitcoin could reclaim $100,000 by the end of the year and possibly challenge new all-time highs if broader sentiment turns positive again.
While Bitcoin’s short-term weakness has unsettled some investors, a growing number of analysts argue that the asset’s long-term narrative remains intact. With macro conditions expected to shift and adoption continuing to rise, the cryptocurrency may be poised for a stronger recovery than current prices suggest. As markets recalibrate, the coming months could reveal whether Bitcoin’s latest drop was a temporary setback or the beginning of a more significant upward trend.
