Bitcoin continued to trade cautiously in early Asian hours, hovering near $86,400 as investors weighed whether the market’s recent weakness is a temporary pause or the start of something more structural. The latest Asia Morning Briefing highlights a growing focus on one specific level: roughly $81,300, identified by on-chain analytics firm Glassnode as Bitcoin’s True Market Mean and a key line separating controlled drawdowns from more aggressive loss realization.
According to Glassnode’s data, the True Market Mean has taken on added importance in the post-October trading regime, particularly after the October 10 flash crash reshaped market behavior. Historically, when Bitcoin trades above this level, losses tend to be uneven and time-driven, meaning investors are more likely to wait out volatility rather than rush for the exits. When prices slip below it for sustained periods, however, selling pressure has often intensified and spread more broadly across the market.
What makes this level especially significant now is Bitcoin’s renewed role as the market’s anchor. Correlation data over the past 90 days shows that large-cap cryptocurrencies have remained tightly linked to Bitcoin’s price action, a trend that became even more pronounced after the October turbulence. This tight correlation means Bitcoin’s moves are not happening in isolation. If BTC were to break below the $81,300 threshold and fail to reclaim it, the weakness would likely extend beyond already struggling high-beta tokens and pull larger assets back into a deeper correction.
So far, that scenario has not fully played out. Bitcoin was little changed on the day, down about 1%, but remains roughly 6.5% lower over the past week as the pullback continues. Ether has fared worse, trading near $2,830 after falling around 3.6% in the past 24 hours and nearly 15% over the week, highlighting how downside pressure is already unevenly distributed across the market.
Glassnode’s interpretation is not a call for panic, but rather a framework for understanding where the market’s balance currently lies. As long as Bitcoin holds above the True Market Mean, losses can remain fragmented, with weaker tokens absorbing most of the pressure. A decisive move below that level, especially in a market characterized by thin liquidity and tight large-cap correlations, would raise the risk of a more synchronized reset rather than a slow, frustrating grind lower.
Beyond crypto, the broader macro backdrop remains complex. Gold has surged to record highs in 2025, climbing above $4,300 an ounce and doubling over the past two years. Central bank buying, geopolitical uncertainty, U.S. fiscal concerns, and a widening investor base have prompted major banks to forecast gold prices approaching $5,000 in 2026. This contrast underscores how some investors are seeking stability elsewhere while crypto markets reassess risk.
Taken together, Bitcoin’s current drift is less about predicting an imminent breakdown and more about identifying the level that matters most. The $81,300 zone has emerged as a clear fault line for market psychology and structure. Whether Bitcoin can stay above it may determine if the coming weeks bring continued uneven weakness or a broader, more coordinated move lower, shaping sentiment across the digital asset market as 2025 unfolds.
