Bitcoin experienced a dramatic market shakeup over the weekend, falling more than 10% from a high of $84,177 to $75,947, according to CoinGecko data. The sharp decline sparked over $5 billion in liquidations since Thursday, pushing futures open interest to its lowest level in nine months. The sudden rout reflects elevated stress in derivatives and options markets, with traders paying higher premiums for downside protection and reducing leveraged positions.
The selloff was particularly pronounced in the CME futures market, where a rare price gap emerged due to weekend trading dynamics. The gap, stretching from roughly $77,000 to $84,000, ranks as the fourth-largest since CME Bitcoin futures launched in 2017. Historically, such gaps tend to be revisited within days, but analysts caution that the timing of a mean reversion will depend heavily on macroeconomic factors like bond yields and broader risk sentiment.
Market watchers point to a mix of macro and geopolitical pressures as catalysts. Partial U.S. government shutdowns, trade-war headlines, rising long-term Japanese government bond yields, and global geopolitical tensions—most notably in Iran and the South China Sea—have combined with thin weekend liquidity to intensify selling. Sunday alone saw $2.56 billion wiped out in liquidations, the largest single-event loss in over three months, according to CoinGlass. Aggregated open interest has dropped to $24.17 billion, marking a nine-month low and signaling a significant deleveraging of speculative capital.
Technically, Bitcoin’s momentum indicators show extreme exhaustion. The Weekly Relative Strength Index fell to 32.22, while the breakdown below the 100-week moving average and the emergence of a “death cross” suggest a more bearish structural shift. The selloff has also pushed Bitcoin below the average cost basis for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, highlighting pressure on institutional holders, while bringing the price dangerously close to corporate treasuries’ average purchase levels around $76,000.
Options markets mirror this defensive stance. Seven-day and 30-day 25 delta skews dropped below -12% and -8%, respectively, showing investors are heavily buying puts to guard against further declines. Analysts differ on near-term targets, with Bitrue projecting a $70,000 to $60,000 range, while CoinEx Research highlights $68,000 to $70,000 as critical support. Observers note that speculative retail capital has largely shifted to other high-risk assets such as AI and memory stocks, suggesting a cautious return to crypto may depend on broader market incentives.
Despite the volatility, some experts view the current phase as a healthy deleveraging rather than a structural bear market. The retracement could offer accumulation opportunities for long-term investors if macro pressures stabilize. Traders are likely to watch the CME gap as a magnet for price action, potentially attracting attention once volatility eases, though near-term risks remain elevated.
As Bitcoin navigates this turbulent environment, the crypto market faces a delicate balance between defensive trading, speculative capital rotation, and macroeconomic uncertainties. The coming weeks will be critical in determining whether the market stabilizes, reclaims momentum, or tests deeper support levels, underscoring the complex interplay between technical patterns and global financial forces.
