Coinbase, the leading U.S. cryptocurrency exchange, could see its stablecoin revenue multiply up to seven times if the adoption of stablecoins in payments accelerates under the new Genius Act framework. Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Paul Gulberg and Samuel Radowitz noted that stablecoins already contributed roughly 19% of Coinbase’s revenue in 2025, and the regulatory clarity offered by the Genius Act could unlock even greater potential for the exchange.
Signed into law by President Donald Trump last July, the Genius Act aims to integrate stablecoins more deeply into the financial system, creating opportunities for crypto firms while drawing scrutiny from traditional banks. A regulatory tug-of-war has emerged in Washington, with banks pushing to limit interest or rewards tied to stablecoins, while firms like Coinbase and Circle argue these mechanisms benefit consumers. Coinbase has intensified its lobbying efforts to ensure the final legislation supports its stablecoin business, as experts say favorable bill provisions would be necessary to reach the upper end of the projected revenue growth.
Under the current framework, the bill bars issuers from paying yield directly to token holders, which could impact Coinbase’s revenue-sharing model with Circle Internet Group, the issuer of the USDC stablecoin. However, CEO Brian Armstrong noted that the restriction could ironically make Coinbase more profitable, as the company would retain a larger share of the interest earned on USDC reserves rather than passing most of it along to customers. In Q4, Coinbase earned $332.5 million from stablecoins, representing 38% year-over-year growth, with USDC reserve interest forming the majority of that revenue.
Beyond stablecoins, Coinbase is projecting strong overall growth. Subscription and services revenue for Q1 2026 is expected to reach between $550 million and $630 million, and annual trading volume across its platform has doubled to $5.2 trillion. The company’s stock has demonstrated resilience, maintaining positive performance even amid broader market dips.
From an industry perspective, this development highlights the increasing influence of regulatory frameworks on crypto market dynamics. The Genius Act could set a precedent for how stablecoins are integrated into mainstream finance, potentially opening new revenue streams for exchanges while shaping competitive relationships with traditional banks. If adoption accelerates as anticipated, Coinbase’s stablecoin business could become a major driver of profitability, signaling a pivotal moment in the maturation of the U.S. crypto ecosystem.
Looking ahead, market participants and regulators alike will be closely monitoring the implementation of the Genius Act and its detailed provisions. For Coinbase, favorable regulatory outcomes could translate into substantial revenue growth, reinforcing its position as a leading player in the evolving stablecoin landscape.
