Ethereum, the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, is showing signs of life amid a cooling crypto market, trading at $3,473.2 after opening at $3,415.8. While this 1.69% uptick offers a glimmer of hope for bulls, market observers are split over where ETH is headed next. Bitcoin’s dominance has surged to 60%, a level that often signals a “Bitcoin Season” where altcoins struggle to maintain momentum, and the Fear & Greed Index sits at 24, indicating prevailing market fear.
Prediction markets reflect the divided sentiment. On Myriad, users give Ethereum a 65% chance of surging to $4,000 before a sharp correction to $2,500, while a separate market suggests a 79.1% probability that ETH will not reach $5,000 by year-end. These projections highlight the uncertainty and diminished momentum in the crypto sector over recent months.
Technically, Ethereum is at a critical juncture. After failing to sustain levels above $3,800 in late October, ETH is testing support at $3,400, a zone that previously acted as a bounce point following earlier corrections. The Relative Strength Index at 41.46 indicates persistent selling pressure, while the Average Directional Index at 32.66 confirms that the current bearish trend is strong. Exponential Moving Averages show a golden cross formation, suggesting a long-term bullish structure, but ETH remains below both the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, hinting at short-term vulnerability and the potential for a death cross.
On the bullish side, Ethereum benefits from substantial whale accumulation. October saw 1.64 million ETH acquired, representing roughly $6.4 billion at current prices, signaling strong institutional or high-net-worth investor interest. Additionally, the upcoming Fusaka upgrade on December 3 promises to enhance Ethereum’s scalability, a factor likely to encourage confidence among ETH holders. For ETH to reach $4,000, it must break through the descending resistance between $3,600 and $3,800, supported by the golden cross EMA formation and potential favorable macro conditions, such as a dovish Federal Reserve stance or Bitcoin consolidation that could ignite a renewed altcoin rally.
However, bearish indicators dominate the charts. The Squeeze Momentum Indicator currently points downward, suggesting ETH could face a significant drop, mirroring Bitcoin’s recent decline from $108,000 to just below $102,000. The Volume Profile Visible Range shows ETH trading beneath its highest volume zone, indicating sellers control the market. Combined with persistent resistance at $3,600-$3,800, this technical alignment favors a downward move, potentially toward the $2,800-$2,500 zone where the ascending support trendline and 200-day EMA may offer a floor.
In conclusion, while Ethereum has structural support from long-term EMAs and whale accumulation, short-term technical signals and market sentiment favor a bearish trajectory. Investors should anticipate a potential test of the $3,400 support in the coming days, with a likely decline toward $2,800-$2,500 before any significant recovery. The market may need this reset to flush out weaker hands and pave the way for a Q1 2026 rebound, leaving ETH positioned for a more sustainable rally after the shakeout.
